Confused by mixed signals in the Tri-Valley housing market right now? You’re not alone. Prices, days on market, and inventory are moving differently across Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, and Livermore, which makes it hard to know how aggressive to be as a buyer or seller. In this guide, you’ll learn how to read the numbers that matter, see exactly where each city stands as of January 2026, and turn those signals into smart next steps. Let’s dive in.
Tri-Valley snapshot: Jan 2026 at a glance
City stats through Jan 2026; inventories measured at Jan 31, 2026. Portal snapshots show a mixed picture across the Tri-Valley. Three cities saw year-over-year price softening while one held modest gains. Competition varies by neighborhood and price point.
- Pleasanton: median sale price about $1,497,500, down roughly 8.8% year over year; median days on market about 29; sale-to-list near 99.1%.
- Dublin: median sale price about $1,137,500, down roughly 5.0% year over year; median days on market about 75; sale-to-list near 99.0%.
- San Ramon: median sale price about $1,302,500, down roughly 5.2% year over year; median days on market about 54; sale-to-list near 98.9%.
- Livermore: median sale price about $1,177,000, up roughly 4.2% year over year; median days on market about 37; sale-to-list near 99.3%.
Local coverage has described a broader Tri-Valley slowdown from pandemic-era highs, with conditions that now vary block by block and by property type. You can see that context in recent East Bay reporting on the region’s market shifts from the San Francisco Chronicle.
Key indicators that matter
Understanding a few core signals will help you read where leverage sits in your neighborhood.
Inventory and months of supply
- What it is: Months of supply equals active listings divided by the average monthly sales pace. It estimates how long it would take to sell current inventory.
- How to read it:
- Under about 4 months often leans seller market.
- Around 4 to 6 months is roughly balanced.
- Over about 6 months leans buyer market.
- Why it matters: Rising months of supply, especially alongside rising days on market, points to more buyer leverage. Falling supply and shorter days on market point to more seller leverage.
Days on market (DOM)
- What it is: The time from when a home is listed to when it goes under contract.
- How to read it: Short DOM signals stronger demand. Longer DOM can indicate more room to negotiate. In many Bay Area suburbs, under roughly 30 days often signals a competitive pocket.
- Pro tip: Ask your agent for the property’s cumulative DOM and full listing history. Relists can reset the public counter.
Sale-to-list price ratio
- What it is: The final sale price divided by the original list price.
- How to read it: About 100% suggests a balanced market. Consistently above 100% points to bidding pressure. Below 100% suggests buyers are negotiating under list. For a deeper explainer, see this overview of the sale-to-list ratio.
Where leverage sits today: city-by-city
These months-of-supply snapshots pair end-of-month portal inventory on Jan 31, 2026 with January 2026 sales counts. They are approximations meant to illustrate market balance; your neighborhood can differ. Use a 3-month rolling view for decisions.
Pleasanton
- Months of supply: about 2.9 months (active listings around 92 divided by about 32 January sales).
- Read it: Still a seller-leaning pocket. With median DOM around 29 and sale-to-list near 99%, well-prepared listings can draw solid interest. Buyers will want financing and inspections lined up to move quickly on the right home.
- Tip for sellers: Price close to the comps and stage well to keep DOM tight. You can be confident but precise on pricing.
- Tip for buyers: Watch for homes that pass the 3- to 4-week mark. That is often when negotiation room opens up.
Dublin
- Months of supply: about 5.0 months (active listings around 99 divided by about 20 January sales).
- Read it: More balanced with a slight buyer lean. With a longer median DOM near 75 and sale-to-list around 99%, buyers have room to negotiate, especially on listings with price reductions or longer CDOM.
- Tip for sellers: Avoid overpricing. Invest in presentation and pre-market prep to reduce days on market.
- Tip for buyers: Use comps to justify below-list offers where DOM is high and price reductions are visible.
San Ramon
- Months of supply: about 3.5 months (active listings around 106 divided by about 30 January sales).
- Read it: Mild seller lean. Median DOM near 54 and sale-to-list just under 99% suggest measured competition. High-quality, well-priced homes can still see multiple interested buyers.
- Tip for sellers: Nail pricing within a tight band and showcase updates clearly. Small details can pull buyers off the fence.
- Tip for buyers: Target homes that are well priced and prepared. Be ready with pre-approval and quick contingency timelines.
Livermore
- Months of supply: about 4.2 months (active listings around 139 divided by about 33 January sales).
- Read it: Near balanced. Prices show modest year-over-year strength, with median DOM near 37 and sale-to-list around 99%. Negotiation depends on micro-area and property condition.
- Tip for sellers: Focus on presentation and timing to capture the widest spring audience.
- Tip for buyers: Use CDOM and price-drop history to find leverage on homes that linger past the first month.
Timing your move in 2026
Spring and early summer are historically the busiest listing windows in Bay Area suburbs, with many sellers targeting late April through May to maximize exposure and outcomes. Industry guides often highlight this spring premium; for a practical perspective on timing, see this overview of seasonality and the best months to sell.
Financing costs also shape affordability. Weekly rate data from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey show that early 2026 rates have eased from prior peaks, improving purchasing power compared to late 2024 and parts of 2025. If you plan to list or shop this spring, keep a close eye on mortgage rate moves and lock strategies.
Turn signals into strategy
Use these quick checklists to align your plan with today’s conditions.
If you’re selling
- If months of supply in your area is under about 4 and sale-to-list is at or above 100%: price competitively, expect strong interest on move-in-ready homes, and prepare for terms decisions around contingencies and timelines.
- If months of supply is at or above about 4 or sale-to-list is under 100%: avoid overpricing. Invest in staging, pro photos, and a clear launch plan to reduce DOM. Review 90-day comps and watch for price reductions in similar homes.
- In every case: ask your agent for a 30-, 60-, and 90-day view of DOM and sale-to-list for homes like yours. Break out single-family versus condo where relevant.
If you’re buying
- If DOM is rising, sale-to-list is at or under 99%, and months of supply is at or above about 4: you likely have negotiation room. Ask for CDOM, analyze price drops, and consider seller motivation. Contingencies can be part of a winning offer when comps support it.
- If you are targeting a low-inventory pocket with short DOM and sale-to-list above 100%: be fully underwritten, schedule quick inspections, and use escalation strategies carefully. Focus on well-priced homes rather than chasing overheated listings.
Data notes and caveats you should know
- January is a lower-volume month, so single-month medians can swing. Use 3-month rolling views to smooth noise.
- Median prices can shift when the mix of homes sold changes, such as more condos versus single-family in a given month.
- Public portals can differ from the MLS on counts and timing. For final pricing and timing decisions, a local CMA and your agent’s MLS pull are the most authoritative.
- Always date your snapshot so you know what changed. The figures here refer to January 2026 closings with inventory measured at January 31, 2026.
Smart questions to ask your agent
- What are the 30-, 60-, and 90-day average DOM and sale-to-list ratios for homes like mine, broken out by property type?
- How many comparable homes are active, pending, and sold in the last 30 days? What does the active-to-pending ratio suggest about demand right now?
- What share of similar listings had price reductions, and what percent sold above list? Can I see full listing histories and CDOM?
- How would you price this home today, and what is the marketing plan to minimize DOM while maximizing net proceeds?
Make your next move with Refined Real Estate
You deserve clear guidance, strong pricing strategy, and polished marketing that gets results. Our team pairs hyperlocal expertise in Mountain House and the Tri-Valley with premium listing exposure, including professional staging, drone photography, and single-property microsites. If you are planning a sale or shopping this spring, we will build a data-driven plan that fits your timeline and goals.
Ready to see what your home could sell for in today’s market? Request your Free Home Valuation and let’s map out next steps with Refined Real Estate.
FAQs
What does months of supply mean in the Tri-Valley right now?
- It measures the balance of supply and demand; in Jan 2026 it ranged from about 2.9 months in Pleasanton to about 5.0 months in Dublin, signaling pockets that lean seller and others that are closer to balanced.
How competitive is Pleasanton compared to Dublin in early 2026?
- Pleasanton shows a seller-leaning setup with shorter DOM and lower months of supply, while Dublin’s higher DOM and near-5 months of supply give buyers more room to negotiate.
Are Livermore home prices still rising as of Jan 2026?
- Livermore’s median sale price showed modest year-over-year growth with near-balanced supply, so competition and negotiation vary by neighborhood and property condition.
How should I price my Tri-Valley home if the sale-to-list ratio is near 99%?
- Price close to the most recent comps and focus on presentation to reduce DOM; near-100% sale-to-list typically rewards precise pricing over stretch pricing.
When is the best time to list a Tri-Valley home in 2026?
- Spring and early summer often deliver the strongest buyer traffic; many sellers target late April to May, adjusting for school calendars, prep timelines, and rate trends.
